A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
